Expected Goals

By: Oliver Fisher AC Milan have failed to score in four of their last seven games, with the attacking department failing to pull its weight. As Corriere dello Sport (via MilanPress) report this morning, Massimiliano Allegri’s side have been in an obvious attacking crisis for some time, culminating in the heavy defeat against Udinese on Saturday evening at […] The post CorSport: Seven goals less than expected – Milan’s attacking issues exposed by key metric appeared first on SempreMilan.

Conversion rate has statistically been proven to be one of the best indicators for predicting a team’s success (Souza et al., 2019). All the more astonishing, then, that the underlying influencing factors are still largely unknown to most, leaving chance conversion for many as something of a black box. This analysis aims to improve the […]

The pod welcomes Gary Lineker for the latest edition of Mesut Haaland Dicks, as the Match of the Day host and England legend chooses his six personal fascinations and irritations of football. Among Gary's selections are his growing curiosity about expected goals, the psychology of penalty shootouts, the death of strikers rounding goalkeepers, a not-so-radical solution for quick free kicks, overindulgent TV slow-motion replays and the futile duty of pre-match interviews with managers. Meanwhile, the Adjudication Panel bemoan the misuse of "high-flying" for teams who don't need it and ask Gary a very important question about a Match of the Day tradition. Get your Football Cliches merch here: https://www.100-percent.co.uk/collections/football-cliches Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

No, this isn't some great existential crisis debate. Expected goals have become such a huge part of the soccer-sphere that the two Mikes decided an international break was a good time to dive deeper into what we're trying to measure, the methods at work, how we got here, and where it's all headed. Prepare to nerd out, y'all.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSupport the show

How good are all of the xG models out there? One year after his initial evaluation of various submitted models, Nils Mackay (mackayanalytics.nl) released the results of a second round of models, including one built by a host of this here podcast. The two Mikes explore Mackay's findings, tackling topics like big chances, scorer bias in Opta data (or any data for that matter), and much more.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSupport the show

This episode answers the age old question: Is football played on spreadsheets? In the heart of the international break, the two Mikes take the extra time to dive deep into everything you could ever possibly want to know about expected goals, and then talk about it some more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesSupport the show